Dimestore Prophecies for 2012
Actually, ‘prophecies’ is really the wrong word. Even ‘predictions’ is a bit much. Let’s call these guesses, some educated, most not. And I’ll confess up front that I’m usually terrible at this sort of thing, so if any of these frighten or disgust you, take heart! But it’s fun, so here goes:
Politics
Mitt Romney will end up winning the Republican nomination for President rather easily. He will choose Susana Martinez, governor of New Mexico, as his running mate. He will also break with precedent and name John Huntsman and Rep. Paul Ryan as his choices for State and Treasury, respectively, prior to the election.
I suspect that Robert Reich may be correct in his prediction that Hilary Clinton and Joe Biden will flip spots this year, with Clinton joining the ticket with Obama as a way to reinvigorate the Democratic base. In any case, I don’t think it will be enough for the President to overcome a double-dip recession (see below) and retain the presidency. This just feels like 1992 to me. If the election were in 2013 or even 2011, I think Obama might have survived, but everything I’m reading suggests that 2012 could shape up to be an economic disaster equal to or greater than 2008. At best, things will be very sluggish, and so Obama loses 370 to 168 in the Electoral College.
Miscellany: The GOP will introduce a bill to amend the Budget Control Act of 2011 (the debt deal) to exempt the Pentagon from sequestration (which would mean that the burden of cuts would be borne by non-defense discretionary programs like the Veteran’s Department and the National Institutes of Health). The bill will pass the House easily but fail in the Senate. The GOP will use the issue as an example of Democratic ‘weakness’ on military preparedness. Also, the Occupy movement will resurface in a major way next summer in Tampa and Charlotte, respective sites of the Republican and Democratic national conventions. Protesters attempting to occupy public spaces near the convention sites will be met with a violent police response in both cities.
Economy
I’m predicting a double dip recession in 2012, fueled by a new financial crisis that could dwarf 2008. This time, the crisis will be brought on by European sovereign debt and a partial collapse of the derivatives market, which is (stupidly) $100 trillion larger than it was in 2008. As more European governments find it impossible to raise sufficient cash in the bond market and thereby cover their existing debt obligations, Germany will back away from providing any more float, effectively undercutting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) strategy of extend and pretend. This will trigger the collapse of one or two major European banks, which will in turn trigger margin calls on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of the derivative instruments known as credit default swaps. These margin calls will overwhelm both the ECB’s $640 billion bailout program and the US Federal Reserve’s new European lending window, creating a liquidity crisis that will reverberate pancake-style around the world, including Wall Street. The Eurozone will disintegrate. Global invester confidence will plunge and markets along with it. The Chinese, who are heavily invested in Europe, will suffer the most, both through the direct loss of their European assets, as well as through the contraction of one of their largest markets. In the United States, recently thawing investment will re-freeze, unemployment will drift back toward 10%, and the economy will experience several consecutive quarters of negative growth. Housing prices will tumble further and gold will rise above $2,000 an ounce.
Foreign Policy
I’m tempted to predict that Israel will finally pull the trigget and launch an attack on Iran, but the Israelis know that Americans rally to their president during periods of international crisis. And the one thing Benjamin Netanyahu wants above all is Barack Obama back on the block in Chi-Town. So, the Israelis will hold their fire and wait for President Romney, who has all but promised to do the deed himself.
At any rate, in 2012 the Iranians will be more concerned with influencing events to their east and west, moving closer to both Karzai in Afghanistan and Al-Maliki in Iraq. A spring offensive on Kandahar by the Taliban will put US forces on their heels again, as they discover that Pakistan was serious about its threat to limit US operations on the Afghan-Pakistani border after the killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers by US gunships in November. The Taliban will have new operational and logistical legroom, which will result in intense, sustained engagements and a rising US death toll. In Iraq, renewed anti-Shiite terrorism by Al-Qaeda will only pull that government further in the direction of Iran. Al-Maliki’s governing coalition is entirely dependent on the support of Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, who has been studying in Iran for the past few years. Al-Sadr will make a heroic return to Iraq next year, bringing with him assurances of Iranian support and friendship.
On the upside, I will predict something of a thaw on the Korean peninsula, as the leadership situation in the PDRK clarifies.
Religion
I predict that by this time next year we will have a new Holy Father, and it will be Odilo Cardinal Scherer, Archbishop of Sao Paulo, Brazil. He will take the name Gregory XVII.
Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
A weak eligible class will provide the Hall with the chance to correct some lingering injustices in their past choices. As a result, in 2012 the Hall will announce that Warren Zevon, the B-52′s and Todd Rundgren will finally be inducted, along with first ballot candidate Nirvana.
Sports
NFL: Green Bay Packers. NBA: Miami Heat. Baseball: Los Angeles Angels. Hockey: Boston Bruins. In boxing, the long-awaited Mayweather-Pacquiao fight will finally happen next autumn. Mayweather by decision in the fight of the year.
Vox Nova
This blog will feature more female voices and perspectives, both as contributors and commenters.
Happy New Year everyone!
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And, Romney will repeal “Obamacare” and my chances for getting health insurance will be forever lost.
You’re conceding the Super Bowl already? Does this mean I can collect on my Pizza at Sally’s? :-)
On political predictions: I predict that Israel will begin intensive saber-rattling due to heightened insecurity (or perceived insecurity). The Muslim Brotherhood will win big in the elections, and though the Army will try to rig the constitution they will take effective control of the country. They will split both left and right: they will make formal alliances with the progressives in the legislature, snubbing the more conservative salafist parties. However, to shore up their conservative base (especially when they discover they cannot easily provide better services given the parlous state of the economy), they will turn up the heat on Israel, threatening to renounce the peace treaty. They will not make any hostile moves towards Israel, but radical groups in Gaza will take this as a cue to increase attacks against Israel. Israel will respond harshly, leading to many civilian casualties and thereby making matters worse with Egypt. By the end of 2012 conservative pundits in the US will begin bruiting the “threat” of a two front war against Israel.
David, I am conceding nothing, but I can’t be a complete homer! Your Packers still have to win for you to collect on that pizza.
On your substantive prediction, I presume you mean that the Muslim Brotherhood will win big in Egypt. I agree, and the United States will once again demonstrate that its commitment to “democracy” is a sham by isolating the new Egyptian government diplomatically, witholding US financial aid, and conducting larger-than-ordinary joint naval exercises with Israel in the eastern Mediterranean.
Mark – if you’re right about 2012 (and I suspect you might be) then 2016 is going to be a very interesting political year.
Depression-level misery will lead to depression-level social unrest, in a nation that is far less cohesive than it was the last time things went to hell that comprehensively.
This will probably mean the presidential choice that year will be between Romney heading up an increasingly ugly and nativist Republican Party, and on the other side whatever party can put together a “New New Deal” -type program and platform (I think the Democrats are showing more and more signs that they are not the go-to people for such a progressive agenda.)
It is a very real possibility that this country will not survive intact as a unified political entity – sort of our version of the Crisis of the Third Century.
Matt, I’ve thought for a long time that the United States is coming apart at the seams. Remember Franklin’s response to the Philadelphia woman who asked him, “What have you wrought?” He said, “A republic, madam, if you can keep it.” Quite a lot hung on that “if,” and still does. Most importantly, Franklin’s very use of the word suggests, contra the proponents of American Exceptionalism, that this republic was always contingent, never necessary, and certainly not vouchsafed by Heaven.
We remain a nation-state, but increasingly we are no longer a people. The “mystic chords of memory” Lincoln spoke about have in my view nearly eroded, undermined by the consumerist ethos, popular culture, electronic media, a complete failure of education in history and civics, and of course a crassly corrupt political class. No longer are those chords able to “swell the chorus of the Union” when touched “by the better angels of our nature.”
A peaceful break up of that Union – and understand I’m talking about decades here – may be the best outcome because if we stay together as a “unified political entity” it will only be as a corporate-military-financial dictatorship, however mild or severe. We may retain the formal appearance of a republic, but it will be a plutarchy. Heck, it already is:
Please revise your prediction of the Presidential election of 2012, if ever so slightly, by throwing in THIS calibration, of which I am absolutely confident: Ron Paul WILL run as a third party candidate after doing very well in a number of Republican primaries but failing to have any of his policies embraced by the convention. I don’t think this will necessarily eventuate in win by the feckless, discredited President, but I do think that your electoral college tally is off. Dr. Paul’s third party candidacy could even throw the election into the House of Representatives, but, in any case, it seems to me that it would vastly limit any “mandate” for the incoming Republican President, and make it impossible for him to do anything significant on the economic front–which would mean a victory for the Democrats in 2016, IF they can come up with some sort of “New New Deal,” as described by the commentator above.
However, I also think that that is a big “IF,” because, as you correctly note, the American republic is coming apart in its fabric and large elements of the population mutually hate each other too much to continue to cooperate with each other.
digby, I really don’t think Paul will run as an independent. I might like him to, if only to shake things up and prevent a Romney win, but I just don’t see it. Paul himself has said that he’s as rock-ribbed a Republican as there is, and the habits of a lifetime don’t change when one is 76 years old.
Now, there may be an independent run by Michael Bloomberg. That could really scramble the election. But Bloomberg is not well-liked, even (especially?) in New York City, so I’m not sure what effect he would have, especially since he could be expected to draw from both Obama and Romney in most places.
Just my $.02
Ron Paul will really have no choice, in my estimation; the Repugnants will repudiate him, and his son’s chances in their party will then depend upon his making his case nationally, after he will have attracted so many youngsters in the Repubican primaries, who will feel very disappointed, if he doesn’t support THEM, by attempting a national campaign. No matter what he says now, I predict he will attempt a Third Party campaign in the fall of 2012.
Also, I think that your prediction of a win in the conclave of 2012 by the Brazilian cardinal-archbishop is WAY off. Brazilians are notably non-hostile to “liberation theology” and the electors that John Paul II and Benedict Razinger have put in place will do anything to prevent such a papacy. Benedict Ratzinger will be kept on life-support until a consensus is ensured, in order to elect a theologically and politically conservative cardinal who is NOT Latin American.
Your prediction re the Presidential election underestimates 1. the degree of havoc the Tea Party has wrought inside the Republican party, 2. the growing hostility toward Republicans by the rest of America (thanks to the extremists in both Congress and local governorships, esp. their perceived threats to Social Security/Medicare and public employee unions) and 3. Obama’s personal likeability. The most recent Pew poll reflects all this, and most surprising of all, shows 62% feel optimistic about the future inspite of the economy.
All this combined with the fact that even in loss years (2000, 2004), Democrats have nearly won the Presidency (Gore actually won the popular vote in 2000), demonstrates an abiding strength that defies bookmaker odds. For one thing, I think even a cursory reading of history will show that ever since the real Depression, Americans have intuitively turned toward Democrats when times are tough.
Never forget which party won in 1992. I think it’s superficial to explain such elections on nothing more profound than an electorate throwing out whichever party happened to be in power at that time. There’s always more going on than that.
Anne, my analysis is no less “superficial” than simply suggesting that when times are tough Americans turn to the Democrats. The predicate for my prediction was the economy falling back into recession from a “recovery” that most Americans haven’t even felt yet. From Herbert Hoover to Jimmy Carter to George Bush I, first-term presidents who preside over recessions are in trouble and that will be true for Barack Obama. If you think Obama’s personal likeability will overwhelm the perception that he has presided over four years of economic crisis, with the prospect of four more, well …
More to the point, if you don’t agree with my prediction make one of your own.
I think you also have to take a look at the gerrymandering that was done in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. Republicans are so good at this, and it really may come to hurt democrats in these states. Take a look at how they did it in PA. It is going to come into play. I’m afraid with that, and the economy, you may be right.
What makes you think Obama is so “likeable”? For very many, he’s a traitor to those same ideals which so galvanized his base in 2008: more empowerment of the “unitary executive”; more catering to banksters; more drone attacks on civilians; even greater disillusionment with American hypocrisy about “democracy” in the Arab world; more subservience of American foreign policy interests to Israel’s; more failure to create jobs through cooperation with American-based industries and corporations. Face it: his is a totally failed Presidency.
Do you think the drone attacks will stop under Romney? I mean maybe under Ron Paul, but I suspect it’s going to be Romney. My prediction. Right now they have local police forces wanting drones. This isnt going away.
What about Canada Mark? Also, em the econimics sound crap. Looks like I might be working a job below what I’m qualified for in health care a bit longer than I predicted.
Sorry, Julian. I’m an American. And like most American’s I don’t give Canada a first thought, much less a second. :-)
Sir, you’re a Catholic, and you belong to an INTERNATIONAL religious denomination, headquartered in ROME, ITALY, which is quite often, almost everywhere in the world, criticized for encouraging “multiple allegiances.” I suggest that you be more respectful and considerate of your Canadian Catholic brethren. You have just expressed a sentiment that smacks of American “exceptionalism”–a view that was once labeled, correctly, by the hierarchy of your Church, as the heresy called “Americanism.”
Just stating the facts, digby, not making a judgment on whether it’s right or not. Julian asked, “What about Canada, Mark?” And my first reaction was “What ABOUT Canada, Julian?” No intention to put down our Canadian friends, but until the moment I read his question I hadn’t even thought about Canada. That may be wrong, but it is what it is. :-)
I’ve written firmly enough here about my rejection of American Exceptionalism and the primacy of my Catholic identity to get a pass on this one, don’t I?