In 2009
January 1, 2009
I’m struck by a melancholy as I compose this. Typically these posts are the easiest to write. They typically involve light hearted, jovial topics. Any challenges put forward are typically just that, challenges to be overcome. I believe however we have entered a period where these challenges aren’t solved. Rather, our present time will increasingly be marked by perseverance. This perseverance is not the cliched sort of the impatience before triumph, but rather the slow ebbing away before death itself takes over. Having said that, let’s get on with the predictions.
- At least one of the 50 largest cities in the U.S. will default on its bond obligations. Many will be bailed out in one form or another, but at least one will actually default.
- One of the major world stock exchanges (NYSE, London, Tokyo) will be closed for trading for one unscheduled day.
- Latin America will be rocked by instability as northern instability moves southward to Brazil, Argentina, and Chile.
- The Chinese Catholic Church will not reconcile with Rome this year.
- New York will not see a new bishop.
- There will be a relatively quiet year for the USCCB. Given the willingness of some bishops to act as if their bishoprics were universal, open fighting will be avoided.
- The number of new marriages will decline.
- The Megachurch movement will increasingly be identified with the boomer generation.
- Beer sales will exceed 215MM barrels. (2007 sales were 212.9)
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At least one of the 50 largest cities in the U.S. will default on its bond obligations. Many will be bailed out in one form or another, but at least one will actually default
What we’ve seen thus far with the banks and auto makers is just the tip of the iceberg. Major retailers are next, followed by another round of foreclosures on commercial real estate. Municipalities of all sizes are in serious trouble, California is a ticking time bomb. Big Brother, can you spare a trillion?
There will be a relatively quiet year for the USCCB. Given the willingness of some bishops to act as if their bishoprics were universal, open fighting will be avoided.
It’s not an election year, but the fighting will commence prior to next year’s mid-terms, followed by major warfare in 2012.
1. The headline Unemployment Rate will exceed 12% by year’s end.
2. The Employee Free Choice Act will pass over the strenuous objections of Southern conservatives. The Provisions of Taft-Hartley that allow Southern states to ban closed shops may go down too.
3. The US will effectively all but be out of Iraq by the end of the year – Casualties will be under one per week.
4. Barack Obama will prove to be more popular in his first year than Ronald Reagan, Jack Kennedy or even Roosevelt were in their first years. There will be widespread support for his economic initiatives; the only exception will be the conservative redoubts in the south, but even there cracks will appear.
5. The US railroad system, especially the passenger piece of it, will begin to be modernized on a large scale.
6. GM and Chrysler will exist, but will still be described as “troubled.” Ford will be in somewhat better shape.
7. Pro-lifers will become more of a factor in the Democratic Party.
The US railroad system, especially the passenger piece of it, will begin to be modernized on a large scale.
You Americans do not know what you’re missing by not having a fast, cheap and efficient public rail system.
Since I expatriated myself to Europe there has been no question of a necessity to buy a car–the expense and upkeep of which used to drive me nuts in the American Southwest. Last week I went to Berlin on a fast German train called an “Inter City Express” and was comfortable and well-treated all the way. Then, when I arrived in the city, I was able to buy an all-day ticket each day I wanted one for six Euros, which meant that I could easily be any place in that city in about 45 minutes, on bus, tram or train. It was wonderful!
For me, it’s “goodbye” for ever to having to own, fix or pay for some fast-degrading piece of mechanical junk! (Plus the fact that so many people here–including, now, me!–are slimmer and healthier because they WALK or RIDE BICYCLES everywhere.)
- Not much of a prediction – the state of California is going to be bankrupt. The governor lays off state workers in large numbers and forces every state employee to work 2 days less per month, thereby depriving people of their money. He will cut education drastically. The unions’ suing him will have little effect. The Republican minority refuses to agree to raise taxes, which leaves Democrats 3 votes third of a 2/3 majority. The “liberal” governor will prove to be a true Republican, sticking it to regular people. Republicans will not throw grandma out in the snow in favor of tax cuts. It does not snow in Sacramento.
- After the religious freakshow that was Prop. 8 and the fact that Republicans have reduced themselves to megachurches and boot camps, Gerald will not favor Republicans for a long damn time. “Republican” now has the prefix “F—ing”.
- Barack Obama will send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, thereby tarnishing his Prince of Peace status. Osama will not be found by Obama either. Russia, with its 10 year war in Afghanistan, enjoys a good laugh at America’s 8th year in Afghanistan, saying “You’re almost there”. America will continue to produce its own enemy, giving soldiers something to do besides smoking and drinking.
- Americans will continue believe that theirs is the greatest country on earth, mainly because they haven’t been to any others and everything seems fun on a sugar high.
- Six weeks of vacation, paid m/paternity leave, not having to work on holidays, guaranteed healthcare, affordable education, soccer and the metric system will continue to be viewed as Communism. Communist Canada will continue to be sneered at as Canadians enjoy low crime rates, common politness and selling medication to American pilgrims.
- The disastrous economic, fiscal, financial policies, not to mention the wars, of the Bush administration will “trickle down” onto regular people for years to come.
- George W. Bush will continue to point out that the only thing that matters is that he didn’t compromise his soul.
- With George W. Bush out of office, terrrrists will stop hating us “because we’re free”.
- Rick Santorum will marry his dog, thereby proving the slippery slope.
- Rick Warren will be given a truth serum before the inauguration, letting Jewish people know that they cannot be saved, gays that he did not enjoy to have dinner with them and his followers that the purpose that drives him is to milk them for what they’re worth. After the embarrassing episode, he escapes but is eventually caught as he is overcome by inertia upon facing the choice between IHOP and Home Town Buffet.
Gerald, Obama won’t find Osama Bin Laden because Osama Bin Laden is dead: he needed diyalasis years ago, and you can’t get diyalasis in a cave in Waziristan. Keeping the threat of Osama Bin Laden in the minds of the American people has been part of the warmongers’ strategy. Perhaps Obama will admit the truth; I’m sure the intelligence he’ll be sitting on shortly will point to it.
“Americans will continue believe that theirs is the greatest country on earth, mainly because they haven’t been to any others and everything seems fun on a sugar high.”
Hey – that’s not fair; some of us have been to Maastricht and know that everything also seems fun on a Cannabis high.
…besides, isn’t the world outside the US only a museum?
BS
The US rail system is dead, at least the passenger portion. Even in Europe it is generally cheaper (so I’m told) to travel via car if you are traveling with more than just yourself. Intercity busing requires subsidy in many places in this country. More importantly, passenger service must use private track and without being priveleged cannot maintain a schedule. It cannot afford to be priveleged though.
On the intracity side of the equation, there are very few cities remaining that support the density requirements for rail. Heck, very few cities have the density to support bussing. In the case of bussing, you also have neighborhood disintegration (not crime) requiring that people go to industrial islands for work and commercial islands for buying goods.
MZ – I don’t dispute anything you’ve said, but oil that is increasingly rare and expensive (and as soon as the economy is on the path to recovery, the price will go back up) will mean changes in the way Americans must arrange our civilization, whether we like it or not.
I agree with you that there will be a transition, and that brings up an interesting question: how will this change occur? This is one where I don’t think there will be easy answers. On the immediate horizon, gentrification will continue to occur in our cities I believe. How does an Atlanta or a Phoenix gentrify though? There is no center. My little community of 12,000 (2200 people/sq. mi) is 10% denser than the urban Atlanta area and is 4 times denser than the metro-Atlanta. Berlin, Germany, has nearly 10,000 people/sq mile. In an era of expensive fuel, Berlin is going to be a lot easier to provide goods for. This is a significant source of my pessimism.
I’d say the the USA is simply too big for a railroad system besides local ones (public transportation in a vast area, say BART in San Francisco). I love to drive, since I don’t have to go during rush hour. Plus, since I like living away from big cities, there’s no public transportation worth mentioning. However, if it’s not rush hour I make it to downtown San Francisco in 45 minutes.
It’s one thing to take a train from Cologne to Paris, quite another from Boston to San Francisco, even on a TGV. Heck, the flight took me 6 hours. I took a train from Rome to Vienna 2 years ago, overnight, sheer endless. Flight takes about an hour. Plus, I got accosted by a strung out junkie with needle marks, pointing at them asking for money. He’d made it onto the train because the personnel was standing around in a cluster, smoking. Upon my asking them, in no uncertain Italian terms, how why what the ?, they said “Oh, what you’re gonna do, it’s a public place)
Well…and AmTrak….#$!&….No way I’ll ever do that again. Apart from sitting in the train for 3 hours before it actually moved, the personnel was just awful, unbelievably rude. Asking for information in the (NYC) station – politely -, I got yelled at in a rather colorful idiom. Even though the soft drinks were complimentary on the train, they wouldn’t just let us have them during the three hour wait. Another screaming lunatic. In an actual business, they’d be fired. No way I’m ever doing that again.
Now, German trains, that’s a different story. Apart from hunting you down and sending you to your death(I recommend Italians as persecutors. I do not for a minute believe even Mussolini made the trains run on time), their industrious nature comes in handy. The trains are new, clean, nice old ladies drink beer (gasp !!) without being arrested, and they actually apologized for being 5 minutes late, hah! So is public transportation (Rome, Paris…not so much)
how will this change occur?
There are two possibilities: Obama will see the need, and use modernizing our transportation system as a piece of anti-depression stimulus; or, he won’t, and the mathematical reality of peak oil will do it in a less kindly way: leave a bunch of (poorer) Americans stranded and unable to afford to travel.
Gerald – I’ve taken Amtrak and enjoyed the experience; the food in the dining car was first-rate, and since I was traveling alone, I got to meet and eat with dinner companions turned out to be nice folks who with whom I had interesting conversations. No way would that happen on a plane. Same thing with other public transportation, especially on longer trips; I’ve actually met girlfriends on buses and Bart trains.
You lose some convenience on public transportation, but the possibilities of human connection more than make up for lost minutes.
I trace part of the pervasive isolation and social aridity of American life to the fact that everyone expects to take a ton and a half of steel with them wherever they go.
I’d say the the USA is simply too big for a railroad system besides local ones (public transportation in a vast area, say BART in San Francisco).
I hear that a lot, and there is something to that to be sure; but you ignore the fact that the US used to have a passenger rail system that was the envy of the world. It only declined when Air travel became convenient and cheap; I’m convinced that increasingly-expensive plane fuel will transform air travel from mass-transportation back to something the elites do.
I have difficulty imagining anything traversing the Rockies at this point, Los Angeles to New Orleans being the most practical. Yes, Amtrak has 3 lines crossing the Rockies, but they are all losers. You can pick a different number, but I would say 4 hours is about the limit for regional transit. A bullet train with a half hour loading and another half hour in stops gets you say 300 miles. A car on the freeway gets you 250 miles. Typical train service get you 150 miles. The Hiawatha Line between Milwaukee and Chicago is fairly successful running about 90 minutes downtown to downtown. I think she does 5 roundtrips.
Sadly, I cannot predict that George W. Bush will be arrested in Europe. Mainly because he’ll stay on his ranch.
he’ll stay on his ranch.
Nope: he sold that particular Potemkin Farm. He’s moving to Dallas.
He certainly did not sell the Crawford ranch. The house in Dallas will be their official home and the ranch will be used as a “get away”.
Why try to predict the future?
Zach – I see it as harmless fun. What’s your objection?
In 2009, the Chargers beat the Colts :D After years of suffering, redemption :D
One additional reason the US needs to grow its passenger rail capacity in and out of urban centers is for management of population removal in the event of disasters (eg, Hurricane Katrina) and terrorism. Highways do not cut it the way rail can and long has done.
This, along with port security, was one of those issues that flared in the wake of 9/11 but had insufficient champions because there was no vested interest in doing it to promote it.