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Al Qaeda (Not) in Iraq

September 6, 2007

As we all know so very well, the administration likes to trumpet the notion that its actions in Iraq are part of the same “war on terror” that began on 9/11. Despite the massive volumes of evidence to the contrary, they like to point to the fact that there is a group called “Al Qaeda in Iraq” that must be stopped at all costs. But how significant is this group, in reality? Not very, according to a recent study. As reported by Andrew Tilghman in the Washington Monthly, the best estimate is that Al Qaeda in Iraq comprises about 850 fighters, or about 2-5 percent of the entire Sunni insurgency (not even counting the Shia groups). In other words, the vast majority of Sunni insurgents are driven by a simpler motive: a nationalistic desire to end the American occupation.

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13 Comments
  1. Donald R. McClarey permalink
    September 6, 2007 5:52 pm

    ” In other words, the vast majority of Sunni insurgents are driven by a simpler motive: a nationalistic desire to end the American occupation.”

    Actually a great many former Sunni insurgents are joining us to fight Al Qaeda in Iraq, as Mr. Tilghman attempts to make light of in his article. A more perceptive examination is conducted by Frederick Kagan at this article on NRO at the url below:

    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MGM2YWI4ODI0MDA1ZjczOTFjNDNkMGQzMzM0MGQ4Mjg=&w=MA==

  2. Dan permalink
    September 6, 2007 6:13 pm

    It is amazing to me just how much people think they know. I can’t tell you just how big the CIA is, nor can I tell you all the agents of intelligence that the President may employ, but my guess is that it is significant. That means there are a lot of people spending a lot of money and perhaps risking their lives to acquire “SECRET” information about the enemy and it’s activities. I don’t know that it is in the best interest for the President to share that information with Joe Nobody. In other words, there may be a lot of stuff we as average citizens just don’t know. But just keep shooting your mouth off of you really think you know something.
    I guess my question is how is it that you know just how many Al Quaeda are in Iraq? Are you one of them?

  3. Henry Karlson permalink*
    September 6, 2007 6:23 pm

    “There are WMDs in Iraq” GW Bush.

    “Well, all evidence says they are gone. We should send in people to go check.”

    “There are WMDs in Iraq, the President knows because he is the President. Trust him.” Bush supporter.

    It’s the same argument all over again. He “knows” better than everyone else. Except he has been proven to be fast and loose with facts. He ignores reports, but if he can get one line, out of context, which proof-texts his position, he will use it and ignore the rest.

    After all he is the super-gnostic.

  4. September 6, 2007 6:27 pm

    Oh please. This is the same administration that responded to prior warnings about terrorist attacks with “now you’ve covered you a**”. The same administration that made up its own intelligence to suit its needs, and lied blatently in the process. The same administration that used terror alerts for political gain. The administration who outed a CIA agent to get back at her husband. The same administration who put their trust in a thieving, dishonest Iranian agent. The same administration that doctors the evidence to prove that its “surge” is working. These people have absolutely no credibility on intelligence matters whatsoever. I suggest you get some perspective about the president’s “charism of political discernment” when it comes to foreign policy.

    As for using the term “the enemy”, again, please! Enough with the metaphysical dualism, the Manichean division of the world into light and darkness. Is there a profound moral difference between an insurgent fighting an occupying power, and a US soldier “rooting out terrorism”? Hardly.

  5. September 6, 2007 8:21 pm

    In other words, the vast majority of Sunni insurgents are driven by a simpler motive: a nationalistic desire to end the American occupation.

    This explains exactly why thousands of Iraqi tribesmen joined with American military to restore peace to Ramadi:

    Today Ramadi is scarcely recognisable. Scores of shattered buildings testify to the fury of past battles, but those who fled the violence are now returning. Pedestrians, cars and motorbike rickshaws throng the streets. More than 700 shops and businesses have reopened. Restaurants stay open late into the evening. People sit outside smoking hookahs, listening to music, wearing shorts – practices that al-Qaeda banned. Women walk around with uncovered faces. Children wave at US Humvees. Eagles’ Nest, a heavily fortified warren of commandeered houses, is abandoned and the stadium hosts football matches.

    “Al-Qaeda is gone. Everybody is happy,” said Mohammed Ramadan, 38, a stallholder in the souk who witnessed four executions. “It was fear, pure fear. Nobody wanted to help them but you had to do what they told you.”

  6. Dan permalink
    September 7, 2007 12:58 am

    “As for using the term “the enemy”, again, please! Enough with the metaphysical dualism, the Manichean division of the world into light and darkness. Is there a profound moral difference between an insurgent fighting an occupying power, and a US soldier “rooting out terrorism”? Hardly.”

    So, blowing up the Trade Towers and killing 3000 innocent people is the same thing?
    Wow! What country are you from?

  7. September 7, 2007 2:12 am

    How many times does this need stating? The Iraqis had nothing to do with blowing up the WTC. The insurgents are fighting an occupation. Do I agree with their tactics? Not a chance. Nor do I agree with a big country invading a small one, establishing a military occupation, and dictatating what sort of government it can and cannot have.

  8. September 7, 2007 7:34 am

    AQ is in IRaq and they are committing horrific war crimes. We are now to the point where the Speaker of the House is not longer “feeling sorry” that the President thinks that there is AQ in Iraq tonow everyone knowing it. Michael Yon who is one of the best reporters on the ground talks about it. The Sunni’s that are joining with us know it. Everyone knows it.

    THe fact is the mentality and horrors they unleashed against us they are doing against the Iraqi people. AQ did their second most costly terrorist attack since 911 in the KUrdistan region a few weeks aback. That had precious little to do with liberation.

  9. September 7, 2007 7:43 am

    One article to look at that appeared in Chiesa
    Kurdistan’s Twin Towers: The Massacre of the Yazidi
    http://chiesa.espresso.repubblica.it/dettaglio.jsp?id=162781&eng=y

    I encourage people to read all this article. At some point saying AQ is not in Iraq is like saying Hitler just wants to a few pieces of Europe and he will be happy. It is all based on wishful thinking

    HEre is just a part by professor Parsi, an instructor in international politics at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan, published in “Avvenire” on August 18

    “This struggle is a jihad, a holy war. It is not a war of national liberation, nor a war against American imperialism. With the massacre of August 14, the members of al-Qaeda wanted to reassert the extent of their war in Iraq, of their presence in that country. And the dimension of the violence functioned to emphasize, in communicative terms, al-Qaeda’s capacity to impose its war over that of all others: the pro-Iranian Shiites and the followers of the “Mahdi army,” Ba’thist insurgents and Sunni guerrillas financed by the Saudis.”

  10. September 7, 2007 10:55 am

    The various groups that call themselves “Al-Qaeda” are at best tenuously related. The group that masterminded the 9-11 attacks is simply not at that level anymore, and the so-called Al-Qaeda in Iraq is composed of a bunch of untrained thugs. The Iraqis can take care of these people by themselves. We Americans are just complicating the situation by staying.

  11. Dan permalink
    September 7, 2007 11:51 am

    “The group that masterminded the 9-11 attacks is simply not at that level anymore, and the so-called Al-Qaeda in Iraq is composed of a bunch of untrained thugs.”

    Well we should just elect you president since you know this for a fact. And we might as well save all that tax money and get rid of the CIA since you know more than they know. Is there anything you don’t know?

    Wow! You are smart.
    Oh, I was just thinking. It seems to me that some (if not most) of the top Al Qaeda people that have been killed or caught we in Iraq when they met their fate. Just a coincidence I suppose. Maybe they were vacationing there. Because you know they aren’t there and that they have no real presence anymore. You are smart.

  12. September 7, 2007 2:35 pm

    If the insurgency is about throwing out an occupying force, why are the majority of attacks made not against American forces, but against Iraqi NP and Army positions? Not to mention markets and other civilian targets.

  13. September 8, 2007 3:22 am

    Dan:

    http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=292192

    If you don’t believe me look at this article. Just because two organizations share the same name doesn’t mean they’re equivalent.

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